Czy roboty nas zastąpią w przyszłości i co to dla nas oznacza?

Time for a minor history lesson.

The agricultural revolution killed a huge percentage of jobs, call it 80%. We adapted with ease! Keep in mind, that worldwide, this revolution took maybe 1500 years.

The industrial revolution killed lots of jobs too! Took maybe 75~200 years depending on the scope. We adapted.... sort of. The job market became an issue. But there were greater socialist tendencies then, unions were created, social nets were formed. The revolution without worker protections could have been pretty devastating. People had to retrain, and the change took a few years but there was space for low skilled workers to move to respectably.

Now, we are part way through the computer/electronic revolution, entering the internet revolution. We are in a 'jobless recovery' from a relatively benign depression. The value of labor as a share of income is the lowest it has been since we started tracking this (in the 40s). And new jobs from the electronic revolution have already been killed by the computer revolution, some jobs lasting less than a couple decades. The class divide is rapidly growing, the US GINI ranking amongst mediocre African nations. Long term frictional unemployment is now commonplace where this had never existed in past. People are training for jobs that exist for a decade. But I mean, we are muddling through.

The coming revolution(s?) is a different thing altogether. The internet/network revolution is still coming in to full swing. But we are about to come into an AI revolution. And a genetics/medication revolution, a nanotech revolution. And possibly a space revolution and a power revolution. The rate of change is increasing so quickly that modern historians aren't even sure what to call this period. Future jobs may be automated faster than people can be trained. 1 year to train an industry, 8 months to code one? Easy decision. Has this ever happened before? People are talking about 50% job loss within 20 years.

So, while generally, jobs vanishing is something that has happened before, it has been over time-frames many magnitudes larger.

The thinking that "this too shall pass, there is nothing new under the sun" is similar to the following line of thinking:

• I got hit by a tennis ball and lived
• I got hit by a cyclist and lived
• I got hit by a car and maybe had to be hospitalized but lived

Therefor I have no need to worry about this 16 wheeler doing 120. Clearly, I've demonstrated my ability to survive being hit by stuff.

I'm not saying we'll all die. But I do think that we need to be prepared. As things stand, it isn't something that comes up in political discussions. Half of jobs gone in 20 years is REALLY something we need to act on. Inaction could be disastrous.